(VNF) – Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) forecasts that the risk of real estate shadow in 2021 will not happen because the economy grows at a good rate, demand is still strong, prices can be controlled.

Housing supply will increase sharply compared to 2020

VARS said that some localities that have developed a “hot” real estate market, which has been delayed recently, such as Da Nang, Quang Nam, Khanh Hoa, Phu Quoc … will be active again. In addition, land prices near industrial zones will fluctuate sharply. Therefore, localities need to have policies to manage and stabilize the market.

Forecasting the housing real estate market in 2021, the Association of Realtors said that for projects that are stuck in the law, many parts will be removed. Therefore, the country’s supply of goods will increase sharply compared to 2020.

Specifically, in Hanoi, right in the first quarter and second quarter of 2021, it is expected that there will be tens of thousands of products with a variety of segments to be offered to the market. In which, the North and West of Hanoi will account for the most proportion.

Also in the Ho Chi Minh city, survey shows that about 20 projects will be launched in the first 6 months of 2021, providing about 30,000 products to the market with all kinds of product segments.

In terms of demand, VARS estimates that Vietnam’s economy will keep pace and achieve better growth, so the demand for investment and home buying increases again. It is forecasted that the demand for this group will reach 70% of the demand in 2019.

“Better economic growth means some other economic sectors will recover. A part of the short-term investment group in the real estate market will return to their traditional market”, Association of Realtors said.

According to VARS, the demand for apartment segment in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city still accounts for a large proportion. The mid-end segment of the 2-bedroom apartment continues to be traded the most. It is forecasted that in 2021, 90.000 to 100.000 apartment products will be traded in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi.

Social housing is also in great demand, especially social housing for workers in industrial zones. Meanwhile, resettlement houses have very low demand for many years. VARS recommends that development of this type of product be abandoned altogether.

For the land plot segment, this is still the product most interested by investors in localities outside Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. However, this product will be gradually scarce because localities also limit the development of land projects, mainly in auction projects.

In 2021, property prices are still rising

Regarding apartment prices in Hanoi, the Association of Realtors said it could remain the same or increase slightly compared to 2020. In the Ho Chi Minh City, in the first 6 months of 2021, still tends to increase, mainly around Thu Duc city area.

“By the end of the year, there may be a strong increase in supply, F0 investors will withdraw from the market a lot, and speculators will sell out strongly. At this time, prices may level off, even be under pressure to reduce prices, but in 2021, prices will not appear. However, new projects coming out at the end of the year will build more suitable selling prices,” VARS said.

Housing prices in urban areas are invested well and with good quality in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. HCM city will continue to increase prices in 2021. It is forecasted to increase about 5 – 10% compared to 2020.

In other provinces, VARS also believes that there is basically an increase in real estate prices at 5-7% compared to 2020. Some localities may increase more strongly, reaching over 10% such as: Dong Nai, Binh Duong, TP. Phu Quoc, Van Don (Quang Ninh), Mong Cai (Quang Ninh).

Investors return to the tourism real estate market

For the tourism and resort real estate segment, the Association of Realtors said the tourism industry will recover partly thanks to domestic tourism demand stimulation. The new government will pay more attention to legal policy for tourism real estate, which will create better confidence for investors.

Many large-scale, diversified, high-quality tourism real estate projects, many monumental tourist cities will be completed and put into operation in 2021. This will definitely create a driving force. to promote the efficiency of the tourism economy for Vietnam, creating a strong attraction for investors to return to the tourism real estate market.

There is no crisis or bubble in industrial real estate

Regarding industrial real estate, VARS forecasts that by 2021, the shift in production and installation of goods from outside areas continues to shift into Vietnam will increase the demand for industrial real estate in the country.

Many new industrial parks continue to participate in the real estate market in Vietnam and many new projects to develop infrastructure of industrial parks will be approved. However, localities need to carefully calculate in the new grant of industrial park projects, to avoid redundant crisis as happened in some localities.

In addition, many logistics projects serving industrial zones will also be promoted.

The rental price of warehouse and factory premises in 2021 is forecasted to not increase compared to 2020.

“There will be no crisis or bubble in industrial real estate in 2021”, emphasized the Vietnam Association of Realtors.

For the office and commercial segments, VARS believes that economic recovery will increase demand for Grade B and C office space from new businesses, leading to signs of recovery in the office rental market a part.

Grade A offices will continue to be stable and rents will not increase. However, in 2021, very few Grade A office projects will be offered to the market in HCM city and Hanoi.

VARS recommends that landlords should not increase rents, even support to sustainably restore the health of commercial businesses.

(Source: vietnamfinance.vn)